Understanding Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models show multiple computer forecast tracks for tropical systems. Each "strand" represents a different model's prediction of where the storm will go. When models agree (tracks cluster together), confidence is higher. When they spread out, there's more uncertainty in the forecast.

Key models include the American GFS, European ECMWF, and specialized hurricane models like HWRF and HMON. The National Hurricane Center uses an ensemble of these models to create their official forecast track.

Hurricane Formation

Hurricanes form over warm ocean waters (at least 80°F) when atmospheric conditions are favorable. The process requires low wind shear, sufficient atmospheric instability, and the Coriolis effect to create rotation.

Tropical systems progress through distinct stages: tropical wave → tropical depression → tropical storm → hurricane. Each stage is defined by sustained wind speeds and organizational structure.

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Storm Surge

Storm surge is often the deadliest aspect of hurricanes. It's caused by winds pushing ocean water toward shore, creating a wall of water that can reach 20+ feet above normal sea level.

The surge is influenced by storm intensity, size, forward speed, track angle, and coastal geography. Shallow coastal areas and concave coastlines amplify surge heights.

Preparation Guidelines

Remember: Run from the water, hide from the wind!

Storm surge evacuation is mandatory when ordered. Flooding from surge can occur miles inland and is the primary killer in hurricanes. Wind damage, while dangerous, is generally survivable in a well-built structure.

• Have an evacuation plan and multiple routes
• Maintain emergency supplies for 7+ days
• Know your evacuation zone
• Keep important documents in waterproof containers
• Install storm shutters or board up windows

Understanding Warnings & Watches